Worldwide Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Rising from 22.7 GW in
2011 to 43.8 GW in 2015
Location: Framingham
Author: Sandra
Collins
Date: Friday, December 16, 2011
Global solar photovoltaic (PV) module shipments are forecast to grow
from an estimated 22.7 GW in 2011 to 43.8 GW in 2015 according to IDC
Energy Insights’ Worldwide Quarterly Photovoltaic Module Tracker. At the
same time that module prices are declining at a record-setting pace,
large markets like China and India have doubled down on future solar
plans and adopted extremely aggressive targets.
“Over the past year China has moved its solar energy target from 5GW in
2015 to 10GW, and there is discussion that the next 5-year plan set to
publish in 2012 will again raise the bar”
In 2009 and 2010, when the worldwide solar market was surging ahead, the
discussion rarely ventured outside of European markets like Germany,
Czech Republic, Italy, and Spain. These countries accounted for nearly
80% of worldwide solar module sales over the last two years. However,
recent changes to policies, prices, subsidies, and targets have
drastically shifted the discussion of future growth opportunities from
Europe to Asia/Pacific, with a large emphasis on the possibilities
within China and India.
"Over the past year China has moved its solar energy target from 5GW in
2015 to 10GW, and there is discussion that the next 5-year plan set to
publish in 2012 will again raise the bar," said Ryan Reith, program
manager, IDC Energy Insights Tracker products. "While Chinese solar
manufacturers have been feeling the heat about the generous state loans
they have been given access to, which many believe is a cause for the
rapidly declining module prices, the notion that a great domestic
opportunity lies ahead is unquestioned. The fact that seven out of the
top 11 module manufacturers are Chinese companies means the fight for
domestic projects will undoubtedly be a good one."
The opening of new multi-GW markets for solar is a very positive
development for the industry. "Given the continued dependence of the
solar industry on government subsidies, multiple large markets reduce
the risk that economic or political challenges in a single region will
throw the industry into a tailspin," said Jay Holman, research manager,
IDC Energy Insights Renewable and Distributed Strategies. "The broader
the market becomes, the healthier the industry will be."
According to IDC Energy Insights most recent PV Module forecast,
Asia/Pacific (including Japan) will grow from 22.9% of global module
shipments in 2011 to 49.3% in 2015. Europe, which is expected to receive
66.4% of PV shipments in 2011, will decline to just 38.7% in 2015.
For additional information about the Worldwide Quarterly Photovoltaic
Module Tracker or to arrange a one-on-one briefing, please contact Kathy
Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or
knagamine@idc.com. For information on purchasing the Tracker,
contact info@idc-ei.com; reporters
should email knagamine@idc.com.
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