Autumn/Winter Forecast Discussion and Glossary

Location: New York
Author: Weather 2000
Date: Thursday, November 17, 2011

1.) PACIFIC RECON. In much the same way that Reconnaissance aircraft fly into Hurricanes and Tropical Environments to sample atmospheric conditions for use by computer models, Recon is also flown into the Pacific (out of the Northwest) during the Winter Season. This provides computer models with invaluable upstream data and initialization conditions, but these missions and these data are not always available. Short-term forecasters typically highlight all computer model runs without acknowledging (or without knowing) when a run is erroneous or "flying blind".

2.)  La Niña negates MJO.  The Madden Julian-Oscillation [MJO] has entered the lexicon of the short-term forecaster community over the past few years, but typically with little regard of when the oscillation is physically, legitimately and statistically significant. The dissemination of MJO "Phase diagrams" by vendors has upped the "wow" factor, but at the cost of being emphasized in a myopic fashion. For example, Climate Scientists know that MJO processes are overwhelmed/muted by a La Niña Event, so 2010-2012 is hence a double-Season where MJO shouldn't enter the pragmatic discussion of USA Monthly/Season temperature regimes.

3.)  STATE of 2011 CLIMATE: Knowing whether we have an El Niño Event, ENSO Neutral Events or La Niña Event, is like knowing if it's a 1 pm, 4  pm, or 7 pm Ball-Game: It provides a foundation of information from which statistical trends can be drawn, but (USA Temperature) results can be very wide-ranging depending on numerous other factors. However, with this Winter featuring a (currently Weak) approaching Strong La Niña Event, by definition Climate Scientists know they can immediately discount or take certain processes off the table. Namely,  Climate Scientists know that the PDO is analogous to "Consumer Confidence": an index reflection of the current state, as opposed to a driving force in of itself. Thus, a formidable La Niña Event will be the reason that PDO values are extra negative (cool) this year, NOT the other way around.

4.)  PROBABILISTIC vs. DETERMINISTIC Forecasts. NWS/Government/CPC forecast outlook maps are probabilistic forecasts, meaning that increasing contours or shading levels equate to increasingly greater confidence, NOT increasingly greater anomalies.  This is one of the most common mistakes made by the user community in misinterpreting these graphical gradations as "Much Above" or "Much Below". Hence, an outlook could be highly confident in only a +1°F anomaly, or have low confidence in a -12°F anomaly.

5.)  OBJECTIVE vs. SUBJECTIVE Forecasts. Also don't forget that Government/NWS/CPC forecast outlook maps created over the Weekend are done so without forecaster input and model-weighting. If a particular model suite (Euro, American, Canadian, etc.) or model run are registering negative skill or performing poorly they nonetheless get blended in equally over the Weekend. This can create tainted, biased, or bizarre outlook maps that users see at the start of a work-week, often creating a "Monday Surprise" which can be misinterpreted as legitimate (mistaking precision for accuracy).

6.)  FORECASTER LAG. A common sequence is for Climate Scientists during the course of their research, to "discover", test and apply new mechanisms that shape our Atmosphere-Ocean-Lithosphere system, and then for these new research tools to trickle down to the Short-Term forecaster community  as "buzz words" a few years later. The problem arises when short-term forecasters (99% of Meteorologists) misinterpret, incorrectly apply, or fail to understand the numerous caveats of these various forecast tools, especially when utilization a few years later may be a few years too late for pertinence. This Decade, Climate Scientists highlighted dangers of ENSO heterogeneousness in 2001/2002 and eventually mentioned by mass forecasters in 2004/2005; MJO Phase research in 2004/2005, making its way (via "cool/fancy diagrams") into mass lingo 2007/2008; And most recently, new climate research regarding WP/EP/NP Teleconnections (and their influence/limitations) in 2007/2008, are now making its way into mass lingo in 2010-2011.

7.) "OUTLOOK EMERGENCIES". In addition to the aforementioned processes & terms, there are a few others you will likely see mentioned in the months ahead in a "forecaster emergency". With Short-Term forecasters heavily dependant on Computer Models (with associated biases, initialization errors, pattern underestimation etc.), there will come a time when their 1-2 week predictions starkly contradict their Monthly and Seasonal expectations.  At such times, more eclectic or truth-stretching terms will be pulled out as an 'ace in the hole' or Hail Mary.  The most common of these is the continuous updates on "Weekly NINO values", because while the 3-Month running average (ONI) is the scientifically proper way to gauge ENSO's influence, weekly values are a convenient (but unfortunate) scapegoat due to their inherent fluctuation. Other defensive references you may witness are QBO, Volcanic Eruptions, Sunspots/Solar Flares, and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events SSW; none of these are fictional events, but their Role, Temporal influence, and actual definition are some of the most grossly warped measures - usually amidst short-term forecaster panic. We will try and address these as much as possible as they are brought to our attention, but always feel free to contact us should you see any Processes, Term or Reference utilized in a questionable or perplexing manner.

TELECONNECTION & VENDOR DASH-BOARD [11/16]:

~ Variables currently being most incorrectly described, defined or exaggerated:

    NAO, SSW [Sudden Stratospheric Warming], MJO, Arctic Snow-pack, Arctic Sea Ice, Volcanic Eruptions

~ Variables having nothing to do with Autumn/Winter temperatures:

     Sunspots, Coronal Mass Ejections

ENSO STATUS DASH-BOARD [11/16]:

~ ENSO Status: Weak La Niña

~ ONI: -0.5 [Need ONI (not weekly values) < -0.5 to satisfy minimum NOAA La Niña Event criterion.]

~ NINO 3.4 SSTA Monthly Trend: Steady

HURRICANE SEASON DASH-BOARD [11/16]:

NOTE: The protocol & psychology follows the same routine: (1) An "Invest" gets posted, (2) buzz is generated, (3) models are run, (4) but in reality classifications take place, if at all, several Days later (sometimes sooner if very close to North America land masses).

 - 2011 False Alarm Rate [FAR] {Invests NOT becoming Tropical Storms}: 54%

 - 2011 Percentage of Named Storms becoming Hurricanes: 33% (tied for lowest %age since 1930's)

 - 2010 False Alarm Rate [FAR] {Invests NOT becoming Tropical Storms}: 52%

 - 2010 Percentage of Named Storms becoming Hurricanes: 63%

~ SSTA: Above Normal

  - Caribbean, MDR

~ New Development Risk (in coming week): Low-Moderate

 - Gulf Stream, West Caribbean/Yucatan, Central Atlantic

 - Next Invest designation in sequence would be 99L

 - Next Storm Name in sequence would be TAMMY

~ Named Storms to-date: 18  [Never before in history: First 8 Storms of Season all failed to reach Hurricane Status]

 - AVERAGE Named Storms to-date: 15

 - Named Storms in 2010 to-date: 19

 - Hurricanes to-date: 6

 - Hurricanes in 2010 to-date: 12

 - Major Hurricanes to-date: 3

 - Major Hurricanes in 2010 to-date: 5

 - Strongest intensity of any Storm this year: 140 mph

 - Strongest intensity of any USA Land-Falling Storm this year: 85 mph

ATLANTIC HURRICANE LANDFALL DASH-BOARD [11/16]:

~ Days elapsed since last USA Hurricane Landfall: 81

~ Days elapsed since last  Gulf/Southeast [BRO to ILM] Hurricane Landfall: 1,160 [> 3 Years + 2 Months]

~ Days elapsed since last USA Major Hurricane [CAT-3] Landfall: 2,215 [> 6 Years + 0 Months]

~ Days elapsed since last USA CAT-4 Hurricane Landfall: 2,653 [> 7 Years + 3 Months]

Season-to-Date Snowfall Totals of note:

{Through October 31st}

Albany: 5.4"

Pittsburgh: 1.6"

Philadelphia: 0.3"

New York City: 2.9"

Newark NJ: 5.2"

Hartford: 20.3"

Boston: 0.6"

Portland ME: 5.2"

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