Recent threats by Iranian leaders against the West may on the surface appear to be an attempt to unnerve Israel’s allies and deter an attack on its nuclear facilities, but they probably also indicate that Tehran recognizes the end result of an Israeli strike and an Iranian counterstrike may very well be humiliation for Iran.

Threats made by Iranian officials have been twofold: direct threats against Israel and threats against the United States and its vital interests. The threats have been scatter-shot and inconsistent, suggesting that Tehran is struggling to formulate a response that is both feasible and also avoids a humiliating outcome that could destabilize the regime.