Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the period. A new
region that has not yet emerged around the east limb produced a pair
of M1 flares at 31/1508Z and 31/1808Z. A CME associated with the
first of the two events was visible in NASA SOHO LASCO C2 imagery as
well as on STEREO A, but appears not be a Earth directed trajectory.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to moderate
with M-class flares likely to reoccur over the next 3 days (1-3
November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period as
waning CH HSS effects lingered.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (1-3 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 138
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01