Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 1339 (N18E57) produced
an X1/2B flare at 03/2027Z. In addition, the Region produced two
M-class events during the past 24 hours, an M4 at 02/2201Z and an M2
at 03/1111Z. This group has rotated more fully into view as a large,
E-type sunspot region with an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Current estimate of the area is around 1400
millionths. Region 1338 (S14E40) is also noteworthy as it has an
area of about 375 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
However, it has only managed to produce a C-class event. The
remainder of the groups on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate but there is a chance for additional major flare
activity. The primary source of the elevated activity is expected to
be Region 1339. There may also be a contribution to the M-flare
activity from Region 1338.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Nonetheless a magnetic crochet was
clearly observed in the dayside magnetometer data in association
with the X1.9 flare.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the
first day (04 November). There is also a slight chance for storm
level activity on this day. The increase is expected as a result of
a glancing blow from the CME that occurred on 31 October. Activity
levels are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (05
November) and quiet for the third day (06 November). Note that this
forecast may need to be updated if an earthward directed CME is
observed and associated with today's X-class event.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 160
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  015/015-008/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/25/10
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01