Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only low to mid-level C-class
activity was observed from both Regions 1338 (S13W12) and 1339
(N18E05). Both regions exhibited some growth in area and spot count
with Region 1338 developing a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (08 - 10 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or higher) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speeds ranged between 300 to 375 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (08 - 10 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 182
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  180/180/180
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 129
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01