Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed. Region 1339 (N19W33) produced the largest flare of the
day, a C6/1f at 10/1831Z. Region 1339 showed gradual intermediate
and trailer spot decay during the period and was classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma. Minor spot growth was noted in Regions 1341
(N08E14), 1344 (S19W31), and 1345 (S25W16). No new regions were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (11 - 13 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339. There will also be a slight chance for a
major flare (M5 or above) from Region 1339 during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (11 November).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels
on day 2 (12 November) due to a CME arrival, associated with a halo
CME observed on 09 November. Activity is expected to decrease to
unsettled to active levels on day 3 (13 November) as CME effects
gradually subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 179
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  180/175/175
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  010/010-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor storm           01/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/20
Minor storm           01/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/01