Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Four new emerging flux regions
were observed overnight, one of which emerged on the disk as Region
1348 (N20W70).  Region 1348 was responsible for two C-flares
overnight; the largest was a C5/Sf at 14/0930Z.  Associated with
this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated plane-of-sky
velocity of 610 km/sec.  Possible decay was noted in the trailing
spots of Regions 1339 (N19W89) and 1344 (S17W86) as they are
rotating off of the west limb.  There was growth noted in the
trailing spots of Region 1341 (N09W35). A slight amount of
consolidation was observed in Region 1347 (N07E28).  The additional
three new flux regions were assigned numbers 1349 (N15W02), 1350
(N26E67), and 1351 (S23E51).  A coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in LASCO C3 imagery at approximately 12/1906Z off of the
east limb.  The plane-of-sky velocity was calculated to be 638
km/sec.  An additional CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at
13/1930Z from the north limb.  Neither CME is expected to become
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (15 - 17 November).  There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1339, 1344 and new Region
1350.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (15 - 17
November).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    20/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 161
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                06/06/06
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                16/16/16
Minor storm           17/17/17
Major-severe storm    08/08/08