Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity for the period was low.  Region 1346
(S18W03) produced a C6/Sf flare at 17/0727Z with an associated Type
II radio sweep.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (18 - 20 November) with a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for day one and
two (18 - 19 November) in response to a possible glancing blow from
the coronal mass ejection observed late on 14 November.  On day
three (20 November) the geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 148
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  007/007-007/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/06
Minor storm           02/02/02
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                17/17/16
Minor storm           22/22/17
Major-severe storm    13/13/10