Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1354 (S15E17) and Region
1356 (N15E55) each produced a few low-level C-class events. Region
1354 showed slight decay in its trailer spots and is considered a
Dso-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1356 grew significantly in areal coverage as it rotated farther onto
the visible disk and is an Ehc-beta type group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
throughout the period (22-24 November) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1354 and 1356.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the period (22-24 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 141
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  140/140/145
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 139
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01