Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
x-ray flares occurred during the period. Regions 1314 (N27W30) and
1319 (N10W26) showed minor intermediate and trailer spot development
during the period. Regions 1314 and 1319 were classified as a
Cso/beta and Eki/beta-gamma, respectively. New Regions 1323 (N23E52)
and 1324 (N11E80) were numbered. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (18 - 20 October) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1319.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 - 20 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 153
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  155/155/155
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01