Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest flare of the period, a C1 event at 06/0912Z, was
from an unnumbered region in the southeast quadrant. There are
currently 9 numbered regions on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (07 - 09 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (07 - 09
October).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 124
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  125/130/130
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 113
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  012/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01