Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1313 (S15E01) was the most active region, producing
multiple low level C-class events. New Region 1315 (N20E08) was
numbered early in the period and is current magnetically classified
as a beta group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (11-13 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
an isolated active period on day one (11 October), as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on days two and three (12-13 October) as
effects from the high speed stream wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 126
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  125/125/120
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01