Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to one C-class flare, a C2
that occurred at 1844Z. The source was attributed to new Region 1333
(N15E11) which emerged today on the disk as a small, D-type sunspot
region. Region 1330 (N09E04) continues to be the largest group on
the disk as a 500 millionths E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration, but could only manage to produce a small B6 flare
0102Z. The remainder of the disk was generally quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with an additional isolated C-flare considered to be
likely. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
either of Region 1330 or 1333.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet for the first two days (29-29
October). An increase to unsettled levels is expected late on the
29th or early on the 30th due to high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected to continue through
30-31 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 132
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  007/007-007/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/16