ABI Says US Will Take Lead in PV Market by 2013

With the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry in a downturn on the heels of the worst recession in U.S. history, and the price of PV module parts plummeting, it’s good to read some positive news for a change.

And that’s exactly what ABI Research offered recently in its projection that the United States will become the world’s largest PV market by 2013.

ABI Research, a 21-year-old market research and consulting firm vested in the wireless semiconductor industry, made the prediction based on the phenomenal rise in installed capacity, a full 900 megawatts (MW) during 2010 – a number expected to double in 2011.

According to industry experts, the impetus behind the rise was falling prices – 33 percent for polysilicon in 2011 alone – but the expansion still might not have been possible except for government stimulus programs, one of which – the Investment Tax Credit, or ITC – has been extended to 2016 to benefit late adopters.

In addition, the passage of Renewable Energy Standards (RES), or Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), by 30 states, sets a standard for uptake that builds on the back of the Federal Energy Regulatory Committee (FERC) decision in October of 2010 which clarified state-level pricing of feed-in tariffs, or FiTs, and enabled states to calculate and enact FiT pricing for renewable power production.

These policies (RES or RPS, and FiTs) are also expected to drive growth among solar PV companies themselves, in a complete reversal of the financial debacle that saw many of them dropping out of the race in 2009 and 2010 – a situation described in a 2009 report as “spoils going to the strong.”

Now, and in the two years ahead, says ABI, expect the hardy survivors like First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) to take advantage of more FiTs, notably for PV power, which is projected to add five gigawatts (GW, or 5,000 MW) in 2013 alone.

ABI’s projection is supported by an August 23 Bloomberg article which noted that spot prices for polysilicon (multi-crystalline silicon) rose in August for the first time in almost half a year, topping out at $51.96 per kilogram – news that snapped solar equipment makers out of a five-day meltdown and propelled U.S. solar firm MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) to a 7.3 percent gain, causing Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to predict a recovery in the solar equipment marketplace.

When the U.S. overtakes its closest solar PV competitors in 2013 – Germany, Italy and Japan – it will inflate the bottom lines of the “solar PV survivors” and likely move the U.S. closer to meeting another projection; that of solar producing 4.2 percent of energy by 2020 and reaching grid parity with fossil fuels like coal and oil.

Jeanne Roberts is a freelance writer on environment and sustainability issues. In her previous life, she worked as both a reporter and a communications specialist for a major public utility. Her most recent book, Green Your Home, approaches environmentalism from a consumer’s perspective.

http://www.energyboom.com

According to industry experts, the impetus behind the rise was falling prices – 33 percent for polysilicon in 2011 alone – but the expansion still might not have been possible except for government stimulus programs, one of which – the Investment Tax Credit, or ITC – has been extended to 2016 to benefit late adopters.

In addition, the passage of Renewable Energy Standards (RES), or Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), by 30 states, sets a standard for uptake that builds on the back of the Federal Energy Regulatory Committee (FERC) decision in October of 2010 which clarified state-level pricing of feed-in tariffs, or FiTs, and enabled states to calculate and enact FiT pricing for renewable power production.

These policies (RES or RPS, and FiTs) are also expected to drive growth among solar PV companies themselves, in a complete reversal of the financial debacle that saw many of them dropping out of the race in 2009 and 2010 – a situation described in a 2009 report as “spoils going to the strong.”

Now, and in the two years ahead, says ABI, expect the hardy survivors like First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) to take advantage of more FiTs, notably for PV power, which is projected to add five gigawatts (GW, or 5,000 MW) in 2013 alone.

ABI’s projection is supported by an August 23 Bloomberg article which noted that spot prices for polysilicon (multi-crystalline silicon) rose in August for the first time in almost half a year, topping out at $51.96 per kilogram – news that snapped solar equipment makers out of a five-day meltdown and propelled U.S. solar firm MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) to a 7.3 percent gain, causing Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to predict a recovery in the solar equipment marketplace.

When the U.S. overtakes its closest solar PV competitors in 2013 – Germany, Italy and Japan – it will inflate the bottom lines of the “solar PV survivors” and likely move the U.S. closer to meeting another projection; that of solar producing 4.2 percent of energy by 2020 and reaching grid parity with fossil fuels like coal and oil.