Rooftop Solar Could Power 20% of D.C. and Save Ratepayers Money

By John Farrell
August 31, 2011

August 31, 2011
Let me get this straight, you're advocating installation of 1.8 GW of PV in a relatively low DNI area at a gross capital expenditure cost of roughly $6.3 billion? Even w the tax break, $2k fed subsidy, and $16,500 max DC rebates for PV, doesn't sound like great economics to me. Let's keep the discussion to weatherproofing/weatherstripping, rebates for more efficiency ACs/heat pumps, and other low hanging fruit until solar actually becomes more efficient and overall economically viable.
September 2, 2011
$1.6B isn't chump change. Unfortunately, you're trying to convince a country that believes the best thing to do is to put a 100 W lightbulb into a 75 W fixture because it's 'cheap'. The constant one sided approach is always there - thanks Phil. The counterargument should be, what happens in the alternative. If the government doesn't invest in solar projects like this, instead, in addition to the billions extra spent on electricity, they will spend more billions subsidizing coal and natural gas directly plus all of the environmental and health costs. Utilities will also have to invest in gas and electrical transportation (pipeline and grid) as well as generating capacity. All of this is money spent - let's not pretend that the alternatives do not cost the taxpayer substantial amounts of money. The cost of such a project is less than what DC is spending on restoring historic buildings from the ravages of acid rain.
John's estimator of conventional power cost escalation is very conservative. This is even a bit below EIA's blue sky. Trends show that a significantly higher number is more realisitic. On the other side, the estimator of $6.3B cost is high and completely ignores both economy of scale and price trends. Lets assume that the entire project would take 5 years, then the average installed price would be much lower than the $3.50 per W assumed cost. Also, the total capacity would be higher as average module efficiency will continue to go up as the project rolls out.
And let's not be overly monotheistic - of course you should do energy efficiency, as well, not instead of; in which case, the savings on energy imports would be still greater. If DC reduced its per-capita electricity use to be the same as Copenhagen it could ultimately produce up to 37% of its requirement from solar.

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