~ After breather, CDDs are resuming anomalous levels across South-Central, joining West....

          - Teleconnections are still confounding operational model runs, so Markets will dictate if Vendors promote Hurricane hype or North Plains "Cold".....

        - "Nooner" Model runs have output biases/trends that are known weeks ahead; not the "surprise" they're made out to be....

~ Southeast Quad taking turn at tamer temperatures while Northeast Quad will re-warm....

          - Conservation of CDDs: Teleconnection shuffling is redistributing warmth FROM Southeast, and TO West and also Mid-West/Northeast again....

          - 3 more weeks of Summer: as 2011 Net Results are pre-determined, one can assess Regions due for cool down/warm-up....

~ Tropical climo peaks in SEP, and also model/vendor rumors of Hurricanes entering GOM....

          - Same reasons why Emily, Irene, Katia & Maria were NOT Gulf-bound, are same as why Arlene, Harvey, Lee & Nate were NOT Texas-bound.....

          - Not by coincidence: 3 years since last land-falling Hurricane along Gulf Coast or Florida [Brownsville TX -Wilmington NC].... 

Current Stats:

Tropical Storm MARIA:  60 mph

      -     Recurving West of Bermuda, then into Newfoundland as it merges with a cold front Friday

      -     Will bring rough seas along the Atlantic Coast from Florida to Newfoundland

        -       May flirt with Hurricane status but most likely will remain a Tropical Storm due to shear and dry air

HURRICANE SEASON DASH-BOARD [09/14]:

NOTE: The protocol & psychology follows the same routine: (1) An "Invest" gets posted, (2) buzz is generated, (3) models are run, (4) but in reality classifications take place, if at all, several Days later (sometimes sooner if very close to North America land masses).

 - 2011 False Alarm Rate [FAR] {Invests NOT becoming Tropical Storms}: 48%

 - 2010 False Alarm Rate [FAR] {Invests NOT becoming Tropical Storms}: 52%

~ SSTA: Above Normal

  - GOM, Caribbean, MDR

~ New Development Risk (in coming week): Moderate

 - Gulf Stream, West Caribbean/Yucatan, Eastern & Central Atlantic, SE Coast

 - Next Invest designation in sequence would be 97L

 - Next Storm Name in sequence would be Ophelia

~ Named Storms to-date: 14  [Never before in history: First 8 Storms of Season all failed to reach Hurricane Status]

 - AVERAGE Named Storms to-date: 9

 - Named Storms in 2010 to-date: 11

 - Hurricanes to-date: 2

 - AVERAGE date of 4th Hurricane: September 8th

 - Hurricanes in 2010 to-date: 5

 - Major Hurricanes to-date: 2

 - Major Hurricanes in 2010 to-date: 3

 - Strongest intensity of any Storm this year: 135 mph

 - Strongest intensity of any USA Land-Falling Storm this year: 85 mph

ATLANTIC HURRICANE LANDFALL DASH-BOARD [09/14]:

~ Days elapsed since last USA Hurricane Landfall: 18 

~ Days elapsed since last  Gulf/Southeast [BRO to ILM] Hurricane Landfall: 1,096 [> 3 Years + 0 Months]

~ Days elapsed since last USA Major Hurricane [CAT-3] Landfall: 2,153 [> 5 Years + 10 Months]

~ Days elapsed since last USA CAT-4 Hurricane Landfall: 2,589 [> 7 Years + 1 Month]

We also completed a compendium of historical New York Coast Hurricanes which you might find of interest:

http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Hurricanes.html

ENSO STATUS DASH-BOARD [09/14]:

~ ENSO Status: Neutral Phase

~ ONI: -0.2 [Need ONI (not weekly values) < -0.5 to satisfy minimum NOAA La Niña Event criterion.]

~ NINO 3.4 SSTA Monthly Trend: Steady

TELECONNECTION & VENDOR DASH-BOARD [09/14]:

~ Variables currently being most incorrectly described, defined or exaggerated:

    PDO, MJO, EPO, Volcanic Eruptions, North Pacific Warm Pool

~ Variables having nothing to do with Seasonal Summer temperatures:

     QBO, Sunspots, Coronal Mass Ejections