US net oil import dependence down in July; product exports near record

New York (Platts)--29Sep2011/451 pm EDT/2051 GMT

Total net US oil import dependence in July reversed downward after two months of increases, as the US exported record levels of several key petroleum products, according to data released Thursday by the US Energy Information Administration.

At the heart of that move was what the data indicates is the second-highest level of US product exports ever. Total product exports are calculated by taking EIA figures on total product and crude exports and subtracing the small crude portion of the figure. Those crude exports are usually modeled on the assumption of some flows into Canada, rather than actual cargoes.

So US product exports for July, after adjusting for the small 73,000 b/d of reported crude exports, were 2.846 million b/d, exceeded in US history only by the 2.862 million b/d from April earlier this year. A year ago, they were less than 2.5 million b/d; four years ago, in July 2007, they were less than 1.5 million b/d.

According to the EIA, US net import dependence -- defined as imports minus exports of crude and products -- was 8.748 million b/d in July. That is a decline from the prior month's figure of 9.187 million b/d, which in turn was a jump on May's figure that was just slightly more than 9 million b/d.

It is still more than February's 7.929 million b/d, which is a post-recession low and a figure that had not been seen since the mid-90s. As recently as early 2009, the figure was regularly in excess of 10 million b/d.

Despite the decline in net import dependence, total crude imports were 9.31 million b/d, the highest since last August.

But in data for numerous key products, export numbers were at or near records. Total net distillate imports rose to minus 737,000 b/d, easily the biggest amount ever. The previous high was minus 687,000 b/d in March. (If net imports reported by the EIA are less than exports, the EIA reports the net import dependence number as a negative.)

Those record net distillate imports came as total exports reached a record 890,000 b/d, which surpassed the previous record of 873,000 b/d set in April.

Residual fuel exports of 491,000 were the most since September 2009, when they topped 500,000 b/d. That set the way for net residual fuel imports to widen out to minus 245,000 b/d, the highest ever except for a minus 321,000 b/d figure in June 2009.

Ethanol exports of 98,000 b/d were the highest ever, exceeding the previous record of 95,000 b/d in April. A year ago, they were generally under 20,000 b/d.

Getting a grip on gasoline's net import dependence takes several steps and is difficult to find in one precise number. Net import dependence for finished motor gasoline rose, to minus 243,000 b/d, which is the highest figure for import dependence this year. Exports of finished gasoline of 336,000 b/d were the lowest this year.

Meanwhile, net import dependence on gasoline blending components was plus 643,000 b/d, the second lowest this year and a far cry from the plus 911,000 b/d posted a year ago. So the US brought in fewer components than in recent months, exported less gasoline in total, but had a higher net import dependence overall for finished gasoline.

Petroleum coke exports, one of the biggest export categories for many years, were 520,000 b/d, the second highest figure ever. (Exports of 525,000 b/d in March is the top figure).

--John Kingston, john_kingston@platts.com

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