~ On cue with Teleconnections, Interior West warms toward predetermined Seasonal CDDs.....

   - Conservation of CDDs: Pattern shuffling is redistributing warmth FROM OH Valley/MidAtlantic, and TO Northwest/Rockies/Sierras/Plains.....

  - 1 more week of Summer: as 2011 Net Results are pre-determined, one can assess Regions due for cool down/warm-up....

~ CDDs & Critical Days have resumed anomalous levels across South-Central, joining West....

  - Teleconnections are still confounding model runs, so Markets/Expiration/Termination will dictate when & how Vendors spin forecast.....

 - "Nooner" Model runs have output biases/trends that are known weeks ahead; not the "surprise" they're made out to be....

~ Ophelia [50 mph], Phillipe [40 mph]; 2010-2011 predetermined "Fish" flow raised F.A.R. in GOM....

  - Same reasons why Emily, Irene, Katia & Maria were NOT Gulf-bound, are same as why Arlene, Harvey & Lee were NOT Texas-bound.....

 - Not by coincidence: 3 years since last land-falling Hurricane along Gulf Coast or Florida [Brownsville TX -Wilmington NC].... 

HURRICANE SEASON DASH-BOARD [09/28]:

NOTE: The protocol & psychology follows the same routine: (1) An "Invest" gets posted, (2) buzz is generated, (3) models are run, (4) but in reality classifications take place, if at all, several Days later (sometimes sooner if very close to North America land masses).

 - 2011 False Alarm Rate [FAR] {Invests NOT becoming Tropical Storms}: 50%

 - 2011 Percentage of Named Storms becoming Hurricanes: 19% (Lowest in over 100 years)

 - 2010 False Alarm Rate [FAR] {Invests NOT becoming Tropical Storms}: 52%

 - 2010 Percentage of Named Storms becoming Hurricanes: 63.2%

~ SSTA: Above Normal

  - GOM, Caribbean, MDR

~ New Development Risk (in coming week): Moderate-High

 - Gulf Stream, West Caribbean/Yucatan, Eastern & Central Atlantic, SE Coast

 - Next Invest designation in sequence would be 92L

 - Next Storm Name in sequence would be RINA

~ Named Storms to-date: 16  [Never before in history: First 8 Storms of Season all failed to reach Hurricane Status]

 - AVERAGE Named Storms to-date: 11

 - Named Storms in 2010 to-date: 13

 - Hurricanes to-date: 3

 - AVERAGE date of 4th Hurricane: September 8th

 - Hurricanes in 2010 to-date: 7

 - Major Hurricanes to-date: 2

 - Major Hurricanes in 2010 to-date: 5

 - Strongest intensity of any Storm this year: 135 mph

 - Strongest intensity of any USA Land-Falling Storm this year: 85 mph

ATLANTIC HURRICANE LANDFALL DASH-BOARD [09/28]:

~ Days elapsed since last USA Hurricane Landfall: 32 

~ Days elapsed since last  Gulf/Southeast [BRO to ILM] Hurricane Landfall: 1,110 [> 3 Years + 0 Months]

~ Days elapsed since last USA Major Hurricane [CAT-3] Landfall: 2,167 [> 5 Years + 11 Months]

~ Days elapsed since last USA CAT-4 Hurricane Landfall: 2,603 [> 7 Years + 1 Month]

We also completed a compendium of historical New York Coast Hurricanes which you might find of interest:

http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Hurricanes.html

ENSO STATUS DASH-BOARD [09/28]:

~ ENSO Status: Neutral Phase

~ ONI: -0.2 [Need ONI (not weekly values) < -0.5 to satisfy minimum NOAA La Niña Event criterion.]

~ NINO 3.4 SSTA Monthly Trend: Slight decrease

TELECONNECTION & VENDOR DASH-BOARD [09/28]:

~ Variables currently being most incorrectly described, defined or exaggerated:

    PDO, MJO, EPO, Siberian Snowpack, North Pacific Warm Pool, QBO

~ Variables having nothing to do with Autumn/Winter temperatures:

     Sunspots, Coronal Mass Ejections