The declining net import dependence of the US is no longer news. But that doesn't mean that each month's release of data doesn't have an endless series of comparisons and twists to be digested. Here are a few noteworthy things in the October figures:
- Total net petroleum imports this month were 7.89 million b/d. That's only the second time since the trend of declining import dependence began that the figure sunk below 8 million b/d. February was the other instance, when it was just a few thousand barrels less than 8 million b/d. October's net imports were the lowest since February 1996, when they hit 7.342 million b/d.
What's interesting about comparing those two months is that demand figures weren't that wildly different. Under the EIA category of products supplied -- the closest thing to demand, without the EIA actually calling it demand -- October recorded 18.563 million b/d. In February 1996, it was 18.62 million b/d. So net import dependence in October as a percentage of total demand in October of was 42.5%; in February 1996, it was 39.4%.
In August 2005, when products supplied hit their all-time high of 21.666 million b/d, net imports were 12.552 million b/d, just under 60% of the total. So we're nearing almost a 20-point swing in imports as a percent of total domestic demand, and we're getting back to import dependence levels of 15 years ago.
That products supplied figure of 18.563 million b/d is the third-lowest this year, and the lowest for an October since 1995.
- The role of the US as a net product exporter remained solid, and for the first time ever, net product exports topped 1 million b/d, 1.088 million b/d to be precise. Three years ago, total net imports of products were 1.501 million b/d. So the US' net product import/export position has swung more than 2.5 million b/d in just 36 months.
- No surprise: distillate net exports of 939,000 b/d made up the bulk of the total product net exports in October.
- What's a little more challenging is determining whether the US is a net exporter of gasoline. The country exported 457,000 b/d of finished gasoline. But net imports of gasoline blending components were 491,000 b/d, and to get a true picture of the gasoline import/export position, that really needs to be counted against the data for finished gasoline.
If you want to consider ethanol to be part of the gasoline pool -- and at about 10% of US demand, that is a reasonable conclusion -- ethanol net exports were 77,000 b/d. So if you add that to the 457,000 b/d of finished gasoline net exports, you could draw the conclusion that the US was a slight net gasoline
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